Everyone seems to be delivering post-mortems on Tuesday’s elections, so for what it’s price, right here’s mine: Regardless of some bitter disappointments and misplaced floor within the Senate, Democrats received an enormous victory. They broke the Republican monopoly on federal energy, and that’s a really massive deal for an administration that has engaged in blatant corruption and abuse of energy, within the perception that an impenetrable purple wall would at all times defend it from accountability. Additionally they made main beneficial properties on the state degree, which could have a big effect on future elections.
However given this total success, how can we clarify these Senate losses? Many individuals have identified that this 12 months’s Senate map was unusually unhealthy for Democrats, consisting disproportionately of states Donald Trump received in 2016. However there was truly a deeper drawback, one that may pose long-term issues, not only for Democrats, however for the legitimacy of our entire political system. For financial and demographic traits have interacted with political change to make the Senate deeply unrepresentative of American actuality.
How is America altering? Immigration and our rising racial and cultural variety are solely a part of the story. We’re additionally witnessing a change within the geography of our financial system, as dynamic industries more and more gravitate to massive metropolitan areas the place there are already massive numbers of extremely educated employees. It’s not an accident that Amazon is planning to place its two new headquarters in New York and the Washington D.C. metropolitan space, each locations with an present deep pool of expertise.
Clearly not everybody lives — or needs to dwell — in these progress facilities of the brand new financial system. However we’re more and more a nation of urbanites and suburbanites. Nearly 60 p.c of us dwell in metropolitan areas with greater than 1,000,000 individuals, greater than 70 p.c in areas with greater than 500,000 residents. Conservative politicians could extol the virtues of a “actual America” of rural areas and small cities, however the true actual America during which we dwell, whereas it incorporates small cities, is usually metropolitan.
However right here’s the factor: The Senate, which supplies every state the identical variety of seats no matter inhabitants — which supplies fewer than 600,000 individuals in Wyoming the identical illustration as nearly 40 million in California — drastically overweights these rural areas and underweights the locations the place most Individuals dwell.
I discover it useful to distinction the true America, the place we truly dwell, with what I consider as “Senate America,” the hypothetical nation implied by a easy common throughout states, which is what the Senate in impact represents.
As I stated, actual America is especially metropolitan; Senate America continues to be largely rural.
Actual America is racially and culturally numerous; Senate America continues to be very white.
Actual America contains massive numbers of extremely educated adults; Senate America, which underweights the dynamic metropolitan areas that entice extremely educated employees, has a better proportion of non-college individuals, and particularly non-college whites.
None of that is meant to denigrate rural, non-college, white voters. We’re all Individuals, and all of us deserve an equal voice in shaping our nationwide future. However as it’s, a few of us are extra equal than others. And that poses an enormous drawback in an period of deep partisan division.
To not put too high quality a degree on it: What Donald Trump and his celebration are promoting more and more boils right down to white nationalism — hatred and concern of darker individuals, with a healthy dose of anti-intellectualism plus anti-Semitism, which is at all times a part of that cocktail. This message repels a majority of Individuals. That’s why Tuesday’s election within the Home — which regardless of gerrymandering and different components is much extra consultant of the nation as an entire than the Senate — produced a major Democratic wave.
But the message does resonate with a minority of Americans. These Americans are, of course, white, and are more likely than not to reside outside big, racially diverse metropolitan areas — because racial animosity and fear of immigration always seem to be strongest in places where there are few nonwhites and hardly any immigrants. And these are precisely the places that have a disproportionate role in choosing senators.
So what happened Tuesday, with Republicans getting shellacked in the House but gaining in the Senate, wasn’t just an accident of this year’s map or specific campaign issues. It reflected a deep division in culture, indeed values, between the American citizenry at large and the people who get to choose much of the Senate.
This divergence will have profound implications, because the Senate has a lot of power, especially when the president — who, let us not forget, lost the popular vote — leads the party that controls it. In particular, Trump and his Senate friends will spend the next couple of years stuffing the courts with right-wing loyalists.
We may, then, be looking at a growing crisis of legitimacy for the U.S. political system — even if we get through the constitutional crisis that seems to be looming over the next few months.
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